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Thursday, October 27, 2005

Earnings Notes (RNWK, MSFT)

  • RealNetworks' disappointed the momentum crowd tonight, reporting $82MM and 6 cents, about expectations - guidance not fantastic. However, I think the subscription business shows solid, fundamental, secular growth -- the kind I like. And the business is now starting to mint money ($16MM in EBITDA). If it pulls back too much on this earnings release, I'll be movin' in. Additionally, Yahoo! announced that they'll be doubling the price for their music service today, removing a competitive thorn from Real's side. (Not to mention that MSN is now an ally and not a foe anymore!) Lot's of obstacles falling for Real on the core subscription business. The question now is whether they have the Motts (as in applesauce) to get another leg of growth going...
  • Microsoft also disappointed, but I'm beginning my accumulation here as well. Their server offerings will be big time. Vista will have the same start that XP had -- slow intro, but eventual submission by the user base. All of this will crescendo in 18 months for the gargantua. You have a long time to get in...
  • The storage technology infrastructure refresh theme keeps resonating for me. I need to do more work on complementary technologies...

12 Comments:

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