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Thursday, March 11, 2004

Ugliness Continued

The market continues to look queasy, which is fine with me. I'm trying to understand if I can understand this repetitive EOD sell-off. I wonder if there are any observable/proveable metrics regarding when retail activity is heaviest throughout the day. The flipside is that hedge funds may finally have found the top and are not holding positions overnight. In any case, the last three days have been interesting going into the closing hour.

I'm repositioning into non-tech sectors for a bit. I'm looking closely at BBA. It's a really cheap stock for the moment but they've got their issues. Wondering if they're turning the ship around or what's going on at that company. Restoration Hardware worked well for me. I liked it at 4.15 and its up to high 5's within a couple of months. Interesting move, need to decide if I want to continue to hold or exit here.

Roxi keeps floundering. I'm doubling as I think no one has any idea that their Easy Media Creator 7 is going to blow the doors off estimates. I think this could be a fast double.

Another theme I need to think about is the election. Right now Bush looks weak, but that's because he hasn't really launched his campaign. He has an amazing warchest of funds to throw at media and he's just started. Frankly, I think having a huge campaign fund is a great asset and it'll be interesting to see how he shapes public opinion with it. This election is his to lose. The flipside is that the Dems did have the popular vote last time around and Kerry has serious creds. However, if Kerry shows continued momentum, then I'd be short the market as rich people won't be happy. Although, the Reps will still have control over the house and the senate, which is what really counts. Need to think through my probabilities as to how this plays out and how that affects my macro bias.

Regardless of macro bias, I'm using weakness to pick up more digital media stocks as this is the most compelling secular trend in the market today. (Okay, maybe top 5, with Homeland Security, Communicable Diseases, Changing Demographics also in the mix.) Strong secular trends mean looking like a genius 5 years from if you find the right horses and hold on tightly.

Should've gotten me one of those Seabiscuit bobbleheads when I had the chance.


At 9:06 AM, Anonymous QUALITY STOCKS UNDER 5 DOLLARS said...

Interesting take on the market.


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