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Wednesday, March 17, 2004

Oil Keeps Risin'

Oh joy, looky that, oil prices keep rising. Makes me feel like staying short. Also, recent comments by the heads of two of the largest private equity groups in the world make me want to go short American equities all together and go long the rest of the world.

Basic argument goes something like this:

America is now on the downslope of a British and Roman Empire like decline, as evidenced by:
- The lack of advantage in production and soon to be in intellectual property
- Our huge and growing current account deficit
- Our nation's inability to reform our educational system (the root of current evils) leads to competitive disadvantage versus China and India

Other comments include that our low unemployment rate is false due to people dropping out of the workforce. I'm kind of ambivalent about this. If someone doesn't want to work, then so be it. There is always work to be had. Now, whether its the type and pay level that someone wants to do it at is a different story...

So, we're in a hard downtrend. Stay short the market and stick to fundamentally valued stories with little downside. The risk is that if the market opinion changes for the better, then I will likely miss the charge up by more speculative names. Need to create a basket of names that I want to move into quickly based upon sentiment change.

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